Annie Comes Home: Seven races inside three points

Friday, October 16, 2026

Seven races inside three points

Friend, these are the RealClearPolitics Senate polling averages. Look at the margins.

Iowa: +0.6. Maine: +1.3. Alaska: +1.4. Minnesota: +2.2. Texas: +2.6. Michigan: +2.7. Ohio: +3.1. Kansas: tied.

Every one of those races is inside the margin of error. Not one of them is safe. Any of them could move two points in a week and nobody would be surprised.

The race for the Senate is on a knife’s edge. Chip in now to help us win on November 3rd →

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Now here’s the part that should keep all of us honest.

Look at RCP’s own Senate map in that image: 50 Democrats, 50 Republicans. That is what happens if we win every single race we’re currently leading. And 50 is not a majority, because JD Vance breaks the tie and Republicans keep running the Senate.

Read that again. Winning everything we’re ahead in right now still isn’t enough. We have to win races where we’re tied or behind.

That’s the whole ballgame, and it’s why the next few weeks matter so much. Races this close don’t get decided by who leads in October.

Trump’s super PAC just told reporters it’s pulling money out of races it has written off so it can “unload the tank” in key races. They know exactly where the margin is.

Chip in now to help us close these races in the final days.

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Sincerely,

Team Schumer

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