Israel Searches for a Red Sea Foothold in SomalilandIsrael is deepening its relationship with the breakaway state. Will military bases follow?
MOGADISHU, Somalia—The city of Hargeisa, the capital of a breakaway territory known as Somaliland, was recently witness to a sight rarely seen in a Muslim-majority country: the public waving of Israeli flags—not in protest, but celebration. Videos shared on social media from Somaliland’s day of independence on May 18 showed Israelis dancing in the streets of Hargeisa alongside locals, with blue and white stars of David flying beside Somaliland’s red, white, and green tricolor flag. The decision to recognize Somaliland’s independence in December made Israel the first UN member state to establish full diplomatic ties with the territory after more than three decades of Hargeisa’s lobbying. “This is the first time we’re commemorating May 18 as the recognized Republic of Somaliland,” said President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known locally as Irro, at an anniversary speech. The most symbolically charged moment of the celebrations was the presentation to Irro of a fragment of an Iron Dome interceptor—the Israeli air defense system used to intercept rockets and drones fired by Iran and its regional allies—by a visiting Israeli delegation. The embrace between Israel and Somaliland has deepened since the formal recognition at the end of last year. Israel has now established an intelligence presence in Somaliland, several officials including one from the Somaliland government and a senior Somali official told Drop Site, and news reports suggest that an Israeli military base is under discussion. The base in question would allow Israel a military foothold on a crucial waterway near the Bab al-Mandab Strait—a maritime chokepoint comparable in importance to the Strait of Hormuz for exports from the Red Sea. Yemen’s Ansarallah already closed the Red Sea to Israeli ships, and has threatened to close the strait entirely in the context of the U.S.-Iran negotiations and Israel’s war in Lebanon. Some analysts point to Berbera International Airport as a possible host to an expanded Israeli presence in the territory as part of an emerging alliance that would include Somaliland alongside Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi. The United Arab Emirates has had an agreement since 2017 for a military base at Berbera International Airport that was linked to Emirati operations in the Yemeni civil war. Earlier this year, Djibouti’s president, Ismail Omar Guelleh, whose country neighbors Somaliland to the west, described the UAE as “Israel’s vanguard” and said its intentions were “anything but peaceful.” In an interview with a Somali media outlet on June 12, Somalia’s president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, also said that Israel had approached his government several times about establishing relations but that Somalia had rejected those overtures. Referring to Somaliland’s ties with Israel, Mohamud warned that “a big problem will come from this,” adding that “some signs are already visible.” Aiding Israel’s AimsSomaliland has a coastline of more than 800 kilometers along the Gulf of Aden and directly across the sea from Yemen, where the Ansarallah movement has emerged as one of Israel’s most persistent and hard-to-reach adversaries. Since October 2023, the group has fired sustained volleys of missiles and drones at Israel, and previously targeted Israeli-linked ships, in a de facto naval blockade in solidarity with Gaza. The operations forced the closure of Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat and exposed critical vulnerabilities in the country’s air defenses. Israeli strikes from more than 2,000 kilometers away, including operations that killed several Ansarallah leaders, did little to degrade the group’s capacity and will to strike. A Somaliland official close to the president told Drop Site that in talks between the two sides prior to the establishment of diplomatic ties, Israel raised its security challenges in the region as a factor. “It was a key issue for them,” another Somaliland official told Drop Site. Both spoke on condition of anonymity to candidly discuss the issue. The talks began last April at a meeting held in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa. Somaliland was prepared to engage Israel’s concerns, one of the officials said, but only if it could receive what it wanted first: recognition. “Hargeisa’s political class was searching for any partner that could shift the diplomatic arithmetic,” Jethro Norman, an expert on the region at the Danish Institute for International Studies told Drop Site. “For Somaliland it is the gamble of trading legitimacy in the Muslim world for a recognition that no other UN member state has yet done.” After several rounds of negotiations, Israel agreed to meet that demand, and, when it did, it acquired significant leverage and goodwill in Hargeisa. In April, President Irro praised Israel at a state-of-the-nation address to parliament saying that it had proven itself a “reliable partner,” drawing almost the entire chamber of lawmakers to their feet in applause. He has repeatedly praised Israel’s decision. In January, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar was dispatched to Somaliland, where he also visited Berbera, the country’s largest coastal city of 70,000 people, and said Israel was seeking defence cooperation and a “strategic partnership,” without elaborating on what that would mean. Berbera has historically hosted the Ottomans, the Soviet Union, and the U.S., owing to its large natural harbor and strategic position at the gateway to the Red Sea. Hussam Radman, a research fellow at the Yemen-based Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, told Drop Site that Israel’s confrontation with Ansarallah, also known as the Houthis, had provided a pretext to establish a military presence in the breakaway territory. “Operationally, the presence of a military-intelligence base in Somaliland would enable Israel to project power against the Houthis with greater ease and with broader access to information,” he said. “It is also to extend Israeli geopolitical influence in a sustainable manner south of the Red Sea, and to gain leverage over one of the world’s most important straits: Bab al-Mandab.” Radman added that Israel would exploit the international neglect of Somaliland’s desire for recognition to secure strong political cover. Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 after its two largest cities were heavily bombarded during an armed uprising against the military regime of Siad Barre in Mogadishu. Estimates suggest that tens of thousands of people were killed, an experience that solidified Somaliland’s determination to pursue a separate political path. Efforts to resolve the territory’s status through negotiations have repeatedly faltered. Neither Somalia, nor the broader international community, has ever recognised Somaliland’s declaration of independence, with the exception of Israel. Shiri Fein-Grossman, CEO of the Israel-Africa Relations Institute and a former member of Israel’s National Security Council, told Israeli news channel i24 that “everyone just looks at the map and understands what Israel is looking for here.” She added that Israel, increasingly isolated in the region because of its actions in Gaza, “needs as many friends as possible.” Somaliland has also repeatedly sought to attract U.S. interest this year by offering access to its coastline for military purposes in exchange for recognition. Most recently, Somaliland’s foreign minister, Abdirahman Dahir Adam, reiterated the offer in an interview with Fox News, while another unnamed official said that Somaliland would be willing to host Tomahawk cruise missiles. Sen. Ted Cruz also publicly renewed his support for Somaliland’s recognition in a statement to Fox News. In response, Somalia’s state minister for foreign affairs, Ali Omar, said in a lengthy post on X that the breakup of Somalia would undermine, rather than enhance, security in the Red Sea. AFRICOM previously told Fox News that the U.S. is not seeking a base in Somaliland. At the start of 2025, Somalia undercut the value of Somaliland’s offer in exchange for recognition by preemptively granting the U.S. access to all of its strategic ports.
Basing RightsSomaliland officials have since been circumspect in how they have addressed the separate issue of a possible Israeli military base in the country, issuing ambivalent and at times contradictory statements about the subject. Following Israel’s recognition in December, Irro stressed the agreement would not be directed against third countries, and Somaliland’s foreign ministry initially said it would not host an Israeli military base. A foreign ministry official later told Israel’s Channel 12 that the idea of an Israeli base was being discussed and was very much on the cards. Presidency minister Khadar Abdi later told Bloomberg there would definitely be “an analysis at some point” on the question. Multiple current and former officials—including three Somali officials, a former Somali security official, an EU security official, and a Somaliland official—told Drop Site that Israel already has an intelligence presence at Berbera International Airport. The senior Somali official and the Somaliland official both confirmed that an elite Somaliland presidential guard unit had returned from training in Israel and that intelligence officers had also received training. A separate contingent of Somaliland maritime personnel had been sent to Kenya, the Somali official said. Somaliland’s foreign ministry in a response to Drop Site declined to comment on the reports. Jama Abdullahi Igal Gabuush, a foreign policy adviser to Somaliland’s president and widely regarded as a key figure in Somaliland’s efforts to broker the deal, told Israel’s Channel 14 that security cooperation was already underway and described it as “very significant.” “But it is not something, you know, amplified. But it is there as a partnership and on a mutual basis,” he said. Berbera International Airport is in the midst of a significant upgrade of its military infrastructure, according to an analysis by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, which argues the developments pave the way for Israeli army access to the site. The German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Germany’s leading foreign policy think tank, said the UAE has been working with Israel to help establish a military presence in Somaliland. Swedish public radio outlet Ekot reported on Israeli plans to establish a base near Berbera, while the French newspaper Le Monde reported that Berbera’s main international airport was being upgraded to host the U.S. and Israel. Late last year, just weeks before the recognition, a delegation from the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) visited the site. During an Eid address in Hargeisa, Irro suggested that relations with Israel may run deeper than previously understood, telling Somalia’s president in a pointed remark that “Somaliland is not alone today” should Somalia marshall support across the region against it. “As for you, we are capable of dealing with you on our own,” he added. A senior Somali official told Drop Site: “We’re closely following Israel’s intervention, which doesn’t serve Somaliland or regional security. It only advances their interests at everyone’s expense.” “Somaliland has to take the stage”Somaliland’s recent decision to locate its embassy in Jerusalem—a controversial choice that helps entrench Israel’s political control over the disputed city—further underscores the value it attaches to its relationship with Israel. Somaliland’s newly appointed ambassador, Mohamed Hagi, announced the move on May 18, on Somaliland’s independence day. The decision made Somaliland and Kosovo the only two Muslim-majority states to maintain an ambassador in Jerusalem, breaking with the longstanding practice of locating embassies in Tel Aviv due to the city’s disputed status. The announcement drew an immediate and unusually unified regional response. The foreign ministers of over a dozen countries—among them Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Somalia—issued a joint statement condemning what they called an “illegal and unacceptable” move by Somaliland. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have had increasingly strained relations with Israel amid the wider regional fallout from Israel’s attack on Iran. The dispute over Somaliland has now become a new regional fault line, with the United Arab Emirates supporting both normalization with Israel and Somaliland. “Israeli recognition does something specific,” Norman, the Somalia expert, told Drop Site, “it removes the ambiguity that has historically kept Somaliland out of the most dangerous alignments.” Since December, Ansarallah has repeatedly threatened to target any Israeli presence in Somaliland, describing it as a “hostile” foothold on their doorstep. In January, the ambassadors of Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia attended the inauguration of a regional leader in an eastern territory Somaliland lost to local forces that favor Somalia. That territory has since been formalized into the North East State of Somalia and has become a part of Somalia’s federal system. It has a militarized, closed border with Somaliland, across which people and trade can no longer move. In an interview with the Middle East-focused magazine Al Majalla, Somalia’s Ali Omar said Mogadishu was seeking closer structural coordination with Saudi Arabia and Egypt on regional efforts to maintain stability in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. Somalia has maintained close defense and commercial ties with Turkey since 2011. Jama Gabuush, the foreign policy adviser to Somaliland’s president, acknowledged at a panel marking Somaliland’s independence that engagement with Israel could risk regional isolation, but said Somaliland was prepared to accept that cost in pursuit of recognition. “Somaliland has to take the stage that it has to take, and you make enemies because of what you want and who you want to be,” he said. “And I think Somaliland is ready for that.” He said the self-declared republic had spent too many years assuming that holding elections and maintaining peace would automatically lead to recognition by the international community on the basis of democratic values, which hasn’t been vindicated. Somaliland’s relationship with Israel has appeared generally popular with the public but has raised questions domestically about its substance and its broader implications. On May 18, lawyer and human rights activist Guleid Dafac, who criticized the Jerusalem embassy decision as inconsistent with Somaliland’s values and international law in a Facebook post, was summoned twice by police. “I will not be silenced and no amount of intimidation will change my course,” he wrote on X. Dafac has more broadly supported the relationship, but said a Jerusalem embassy would weaken Somaliland’s case for wider recognition of its statehood. Earlier this year, two clerics were arrested for criticizing the relationship with Israel, along with several others. The tension between Somaliland’s aspirations and the costs of pursuing them was perhaps most starkly framed by Sheikh Mustafa Haji, one of Somaliland’s most prominent Islamic preachers earlier this year. While acknowledging the country’s right to seek recognition, he drew a direct line between Somaliland’s own history—when the now-autonomous territory suffered tremendous violence at the hands of the central government during a civil war in the 1980s—and what it now risks enabling. “Escaping the injustice you are facing,” he said, “should never lead you to support the greatest oppressor, who is killing Muslim people to this day.”
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