These data scientists built a model to identify the precise voters we'll need to turn out to win

The general election—and the future of our nation—will likely be decided by a tiny number of votes in a very, very small handful of battleground states.

Dear MoveOn member,

The general election—and the future of our nation—will likely be decided by a tiny number of votes in a very, very small handful of battleground states.

How tiny a number of votes? Well, on average, Biden won by only FIVE votes per precinct in the critical states of Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election. Without those crucial votes—a minuscule 0.00026% of all votes cast in the election—Trump would still be president.

And in this year's election, the latest polling shows the race within the margin of error in all seven battleground states, making the outcome hard to predict.¹ That's why it's even more critical that we spread the word and contact voters about showing up to the polls.

In 2022, MoveOn's innovative get-out-the-vote program resulted in 50,000 unlikely voters casting ballots in battleground districts. To replicate our success and defeat dangerous MAGA candidates this year, we're executing a state-of-the-art, evidence-based campaign to identify and turn out the critical voters we'll need to win in November.

MoveOn has an in-house analytics team of top data scientists with advanced degrees in the field. Between them, the team has dozens of years of technical experience building sophisticated predictive models.

MoveOn's team of data scientists built a custom audience of voters we'll need to turn out to win. And then they worked in partnership with the communications staff to test and identify the messaging that is most effective at persuading these voters to cast a ballot.

Our methods are proven and effective. But with Election Day fast approaching, we need your support to reach as many of these key voters as possible. Can you make a $9 donation now to power MoveOn's work to turn out the voters who can tip the victory to us this November and stop Trump, MAGA, and Project 2025 from taking over our democracy?

Voter targeting matters. And getting these voters to the polls is MoveOn's secret sauce.

For example, we know that young voters get most of their news online, so our team is running highly targeted digital ads to reach voters through apps, websites, and social media. But many older voters are still best reached through the good old U.S. Postal Service, so MoveOn is using snail mail as well.

Each voter is unique—and it's our job to meet them where they are.

That's why MoveOn's data analytics experts spent months and months building and fine-tuning custom targeted audiences in the key states we'll need to turn out to win. And then the team conducted unique and innovative scientific experiments to figure out the right messages and methods to communicate with these critical voters and motivate them to vote.

MoveOn's team has concluded most of our experiments, and we have determined the precise modes and messages to reach the specific voters we need. Now, with only 34 days until Election Day, we need to broadcast these messages as heavily as possible to turn out the precise voters we'll need to win this election.

We have the data, tools, and messages we need to win. Now, we need the funding to deploy these messages to the exact voters who need to see them.

Will you chip in $9 to ensure our evidence-based, get-out-the-vote ads reach our key voters as many times as possible in these critical final weeks of the campaign?

Thanks for all you do.

–Allison, Amy, Ankur, Ansa, and the rest of the team

Source:

1. "Latest Polls," FiveThirtyEight, September 30, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/153948?t=4&akid=408812%2E53570607%2EkKI91s

Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025 is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll our nation.

Will you donate to power MoveOn's election plan, stop Trump, and ensure Project 2025 is never enacted? 

Yes, I'll chip in.

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