Dear fellow MoveOn member,
The New York Times is reporting that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are TIED in every single swing state. Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada—all of them are within the margin of error.1
It's clear that this election will come down to a handful of voters in a few key states.
The good news is that MoveOn has a plan that works to reach left-leaning voters who don't always vote and get them to the polls. It's a proven, incredibly effective tactic called "community vote tripling." And it's up to five times more effective than other methods for getting voters to the polls. FIVE TIMES!2
Normally, if a get-out-the-vote method is just 150% or 200% more effective, it's a big deal. But when something is 500% more effective? That's a breakthrough!
Take a look at this chart:
But here's the challenge: Like all get-out-the-vote efforts, MoveOn's program is expensive and resource-intensive.
I'll explain how MoveOn's approach works and why it's so crucial below. But first, I have an urgent request:
Here's more about how MoveOn's community vote tripling program to get out the vote works:
There are millions of voters who we know are on our side but who vote only occasionally. And reaching many of these voters is extremely difficult.
(Maybe you know some people who could use a reminder to vote? If so, please pick up your phone and text them right now!)
Many folks aren't home when a canvasser knocks on their door; others screen their phone calls. Some throw election mailers out with junk mail, and many don't respond to text messages from strangers.
Often, these are young people. Or people who are just plain busy—think about the millions who work two jobs, as well as all of the caregivers you know.
In a randomized controlled trial in Georgia in 2022, almost 25% of people reached by vote tripling had previously been unreachable after seven attempts: calling, knocking on their door, texting, you name it—without any reply at all.3
But with the help of community vote tripling, thousands of these voters received personal reminders to vote! And it worked where every other method failed!4
The idea is deceptively simple: In progressive areas of key states, volunteers ask people who are ready to vote—or have already voted—to reach out to three friends or family members and remind them to vote too. And it works!
Think about it: If a friend or family member texts you to say, "I voted, can you do the same?"—that's a message you pay attention to. That's personal. It's the kind of outreach that breaks through the noise, the lies, and the chaos of Trump's campaign.
And this year, MoveOn's crack team of data scientists spent months building tools that can not only identify the specific areas in swing states with the highest concentrations of these voters, they can also tell volunteers exactly which high-trafficked areas to set up in to have the most impact!
That's how this approach maximizes the value of our volunteers' efforts and reaches certain voters who would otherwise slip through the cracks completely.
This election will be decided by a razor-thin margin. And the people MoveOn reaches with its site-based vote tripling efforts could tip the balance.
MoveOn's tactic is as much as 500% more effective at turning out voters than traditional methods. And it can reach key swing-state voters who simply cannot be reached any other way.
You may also be wondering if this work is really needed. And the answer is YES!
I've been in politics for more than 50 years now. And what I've seen is that, by and large, Democrats win elections when we do a better job at turning out our infrequent voters—like we did in 2020, when we had the highest voter turnout since the year 1900.5
Conversely, Democrats tend to lose when we do a worse job organizing—like in 2016, when voter turnout was at a 20-year low.6
Another reason we need this now, I believe, is more specific to this election: Trump's calculated chaos.
When Trump lies through his teeth about hurricane response—to the point that Republican governors correct him—backs out of his "60 Minutes" interview, refuses to do a second debate, vilifies immigrant communities, and espouses racist, antisemitic, and hateful ideas and policies, it's all part of a concerted strategy to get the infrequent voters whom Democrats need to turn out to keep tuning out.
And if infrequent voters sit this election out, Trump wins.
The reality is that almost everyone in America knows Trump by now. Nearly everyone has made up their minds about him. Recent polls have found that nearly 90% of voters say they do not need to learn more about Trump to decide their vote.7
But many of these infrequent voters still say that they need to know more about Vice President Harris—or they remain undecided about her. And by dominating the airwaves nonstop, Trump ensures that voters aren't hearing about Vice President Harris.
Trump knows that when he sucks all the media oxygen out of the air, so that Vice President Harris has fewer opportunities to define herself positively, voters become overwhelmed by the chaos and tune out politics altogether. And he hopes that this will lower voter turnout and increase his chances.
Breaking through Trump's cacophony is a difficult challenge. But most people do trust their friends and family. And if they hear that those people are voting for Harris—and get a reminder to vote from someone they trust, it can make the critical difference. Which is why I believe that MoveOn's effort is so crucial.
I don't know about you, but I don't want to wake up the day after the election and wish I'd done more. I'm doing everything I can to elect Vice President Harris, and I hope you will do everything you can too, including volunteering if you can and supporting MoveOn's critical vote tripling efforts in key swing states.
The finish line is now in sight. We have just 23 days to go.
In this final stretch, let's cut through the chaos of this election, do everything we can to reach the voters who will decide the election, and ensure that Trump's extremism is defeated.
Thanks for all you do.
–Robert Reich
Sources:
1. "Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump," The New York Times, accessed October 11, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196842?t=6&akid=410515%2E53570607%2EfjwUsu
2. "Our tactics," Vote Rev, accessed October 11, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/164513?t=8&akid=410515%2E53570607%2EfjwUsu
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. "1. Voter turnout, 2018-2022," Pew Research Center, July 12, 2023
https://act.moveon.org/go/195617?t=10&akid=410515%2E53570607%2EfjwUsu
6. "Voter turnout at 20-year low in 2016," CNN, November 30, 2016
https://act.moveon.org/go/198328?t=12&akid=410515%2E53570607%2EfjwUsu
7. "Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate," The New York Times, September 19, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/197435?t=14&akid=410515%2E53570607%2EfjwUsu
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