Whoa, our abortion ad is super effective!

As of Tuesday morning, the nation's top election model predicts that Kamala Harris will narrowly win the popular vote but that Donald Trump will win the Electoral College and thus the presidency.

Dear MoveOn member,

As of Tuesday morning, the nation's top election model predicts that Kamala Harris will narrowly win the popular vote but that Donald Trump will win the Electoral College and thus the presidency.¹

In fact, the model, by Nate Silver, gives Trump a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College to Harris's 44% chance.²

It's not a surprise: We live in a very divided country, and the Electoral College is biased toward Republicans.³

But rather than ride the rollercoaster, let's focus on what we can change.

This year, millions of people will sit out the election. Many who lean Democratic are young or in marginalized communities and face big hurdles to voting as a result of Republican Jim Crow 2.0 voter suppression laws and the MAGA Supreme Court's gutting of the Voting Rights Act. Many do not believe that their voice and vote matter.

That's where we can make a difference, Andra. Together, we can convince those Democratic-leaning but inconsistent "surge" voters that their voice indeed matters—so much!—and help get them to the polls.

The best way to do that is on the issues that matter most to them, since these voters tend to be more skeptical of politicians and political parties.

Already, our hard-hitting abortion ad has been seen nearly 7 million times by these surge voters in battleground states. Yes, 7 million times! Surge voters are seeing the ad where they're already online: social media platforms, streaming sites, and other websites.

And the ad is incredibly effective, increasing surge voters' intention to vote for Harris by 3.4 percentage points—which is HUGE!

But surge voters must see the ad a total of five to nine times. That's what the research shows is needed to motivate voters around an issue.⁴ And that's why we need your help.

Will you rush a $9 donation to MoveOn right now to help expand our ad buy and show the abortion ad to more surge voters in battleground states?

The New York Times is now reporting that more voters in swing states now say that abortion "is central to their decision this fall."⁵

For women under age 45, abortion has overtaken the economy as the single most important issue to their vote.⁶

Please, will you rush a $9 donation to MoveOn so more surge voters see and are motivated by our powerful abortion ad?

This ad is one critical component of our data-driven, research-based, cutting-edge campaign to turn out voters in battleground states. And with ballots getting mailed as soon as this Friday in the battleground state of North Carolina, time is of the essence.

Andra, remember the horror, fear, rage, and/or sadness you felt the day the Supreme Court, packed with Trump nominees, overturned Roe v. Wade.

So many of us now live in states with Trump abortion bans and now don't have the freedom to control our own bodies or lives.

But we do have the power to fight back. We have the power to organize. We have the power to help convince other voters that their freedom, their voice, and their vote matters.

But it's going to take all of us. Are you in?

Thanks for all you do.

–Mohammad, Alexis, Chris, Soraya, and the rest of the team

Sources:

1. "There's no 'normal' in this election," Silver Bulletin, September 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196592?t=5&akid=404298%2E53570607%2EhiQ-eI

2. Ibid.

3. "The Republican Electoral College Advantage," The Cook Political Report, July 22, 2022
https://act.moveon.org/go/196593?t=7&akid=404298%2E53570607%2EhiQ-eI

4. "What is the Perfect Digital Ad Frequency?" Pulse, accessed September 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196594?t=9&akid=404298%2E53570607%2EhiQ-eI

5. "More Voters, Especially Women, Now Say Abortion Is Their Top Issue," The New York Times, August 31, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196595?t=11&akid=404298%2E53570607%2EhiQ-eI

6. Ibid.

Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025 is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll our nation.

Will you donate to power MoveOn's election plan, stop Trump, and ensure Project 2025 is never enacted? 

Yes, I'll chip in.

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